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 How far chance plays a role in the history of nations? Let me recall the story I had posted some time ago.

 

Blind Chance

Agastya, a householder from Tulu desam, who lived in the middle of two constantly fighting neighbors Ambu and Subbu, had enough of his life. He went to Kailas to meditate. He received in due course enlightenment and his mentor asked him to choose a gift. He chose a deity in gold as large as a man’s palm.

“Chance it is called.” The mentor commented.

“It is a good gift to make my going back to my folks worth remembering.” Before he reached his home he came along a river where one man was about to make a hole in the river. “Don’t,” Agastya ran up to him. “It is chance which brought me to save you.” To his great surprise he was Subbu, his neighbor.

Yogi Agastya gave him his image and said,” Remember Chance has saved you.” Not long after Subbu went on a journey and he carried his image for his protection. While passing through a forest he was waylaid by robbers and was killed for the gold he carried.

As soon as news reached his home Ambu the other neighbor went to the Yogi and fell at his feet and said “Chance which you brought was for my rescue. Was it not?”

Chance has to be explained in terms of total interaction of life-forms. Certainty is settled by actions. Certainy of any ony one set of events in turn is on its own and must take its chance with others. History as with individual plays with larger groups and on a wider scale but the principle is always the same.

 

14.7

In Cosmos certainty of any action creates its own chains of events which create chance for a new player. Thus the war on terror in 2003 deposed Saddam Hussein of Iraq. Consequences of US intervention seems to have strengthened the hegemony of Shi’ia faction in the Middle East. So the Sunni faction whips up an opposition to cut the role of Iran in the region. Syria’s ability to withstand the opposition is a proof of Iran’s growing clout in the region. In a 4-D world of certainty chance is in the flattened down 3-D version of reality.

benny

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Once upon a time Kim Kong-un a gorilla heard that all animals were called to show their talents before the United Nations of A-Z animal kingdom. He hastened to the spot. Meanwhile a camel also heard the call. ‘Oh I have talents!’hollered he. He left immediately to the venue. Seeing his one hump those camels with two humps gathered together and said,’Let us see what this FAT WA-di can do. ‘Allah gave us bellies to hold bilge water! and this flea ridden camel has only heavy water.’
They all sung in derision,’ His sort makes us puke/ while he talks of nuke.’ Oh they despised him but FAT WAdi thrived on such criticisms.
By the time he reached the gathering the ape was finished with his make up and it wonderfully improved his performance.
The fat Buddha twirling a little toy before all did a song- and dance of the wonder of the age. The audience was wowed. They sung,’He has a little rocket /and how does it go in his pocket!’ They all agreed he was a genius who not only had a walk most peculiar but also danced like no other. The camel was most angry. He said he could do better. The animals asked him to prove his worth. The camel did all clumsy moves to impress them. They laughed and rolled on the ground in hysterics. They cried,’Go away, all that bilge water is foul/ Farting makes us howl” They drove him from their company.
The Camel and the Monkey- in comic strip format

Aesop Fables-1-a-13

Aesop Fables-1-13-1b

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I grew up in the shadow of a war and seen dictators tumble and the new come in their wake. I have seen Stalin exercising absolute power and the politburo treated like toilet roll. There were many even after the Soviet bloc collapsed officially imitating the great psychopath. I also see those who have no ideology but power. Every one of them sitting on the throne and growing old. They are touted as fathers to their people. They cannot really see straight for the sake of people or for themselves. Why are they then allowed to sleep on their jobs? Obviously the people have let them. People have been thus made fools of for some millennia.
Not any more. I have been seeing in the Middle- East people reclaiming their right to topple their heads of state who have ceased to lead. These heads of state have had not a single idea by which they could benefit. So they became poorer when a few close to the figurehead have fattened. It is clear that no one becomes rich out of thin air. Those who became poorer became poorer only because they let others rob them, their rights,opportunities and lives. The back-room boys,cabal, cliques and party bosses owe to none but to their own power. This power as with millions stolen from the public they can peddle to make their power secure. Power-play is the name of the game. People do not know if they have power because they never knew they alienated power to hungry jackals who prosper at their cost. It happened in Tunisia, Egypt and the whole Middle- East need to know their power does not come from external sources but from themselves.
The people allowed Mubark and others to think for them. The same problem shall surely arise if they were to allow some vested parties think for them in future. Religion has made frauds come with the deceiving words to lead the people. Instead of Mubarak some shall make a grab for their power using religion. Or it may be that some cursed ungodly ideology that has no meaning or relevance to them and if they succeed use them as a test case. Ayatollahs and Mullahs ought to sit where they belong. They are not licensed to deprive the people of their right to choose what is best for their families. They may guide them in their spiritual quest but not twist their physical lives to show their power to their advantage. Kings, Ayatollahs or any privileged group who think they want to have power without responsibility are frauds.
Destiny of every Middle Eastern country depends on their people. Definitely it does not rest with some one who would rather use suicide bombers than do his duty. Duty of an Egyptian is to think for himself in which direction he wants his children to grow up. Either prosper or go up in smoke with their bits of flesh and pieces of bones scattered from the Golden Horn to the strait of Hormuz?
If people do not exercise their responsibility they shall be certainly run over by every fraud whose religion is suspect, whose promises are written in the wind.
benny

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Lately I have been reading Dosteovsky classic where the central figure is contemplating murder of a pawnbroker. But in that crucial moment the pawn broker’s half-sister unexpectedly comes in. Raskolnikov chose the time of murder knowing his victim,- an useless parasite fattening on the society would be alone at that time. We can understand the murderer would strike whoever is likely to blow his cover away. Within that narrow space of opportunity the murderer will not think of anything except saving himself. Thus for all his rational thinking (by which he justified murder) he had to kill one who was a victim herself. His rational thinking failed him. Because Chance screwed up the script.
Thus chance shall be, upsetting dreams of statesmen and politicians alike. One only need to look into the reason for the West going into Iraq or Afghanistan and the present bloodletting that occurs there. Did not Chance upset the arithmetic of the West? This sad truth has been present since history has been recorded. Why no one has given closer look at the element of Chance? Well it is besides the present scope of discussion. I only need to say that each ideology or religion makes the believer in the right of his might Thus the Pope calls believers for a Crusade as a Sultan for Jihad. Each one is lulled into delusion.
All the fine talk of democracy or public good are fine as far it is put on the paper. But when blood is drawn and the troops are committed to overrun a territory to which you don’t have a moral claim Chance takes over. Chance that has gone by a smiling face and is Everyman with whom one is at cordial terms is morphed into an angel of destruction and with wanton mayhem you had nothing to do with. It was all cut and dried and very realistic the way you put the operation in place. ‘But what a monster is this?’
The West with its liberal principles will meet Chance in such a vengeful mode as the Jihadists or ragtag band of assassins who war on peaceful folks in Iraq and elsewhere would learn sooner or later. When common man wants a decent life to give him religion or a home-made bomb will only rip you apart. Religion palliates a little but cannot save him. Every pipe dream has its time to blow right in your face. The Middle East shall learn to put behind everything that stops them from becoming one with other civilized societies. Only that it is by common will and not pushed by by some least of all by some that are atavistic and backward ideology.
Chance trades in blood for religion, statehood and any ideology you name it. Finally when this monster is reined in what is left with neither one nor the other will be happy with. I wonder how happy West is going to be with democracy as practiced by Iraq in another fifty years.
I remember the birth of Bangladesh what went before and after. From this and many other examples I dare say I shall be proven right.
benny

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Will the real Mulla Nasruddin stand up? -1

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‘Bush reportedly rejected Israeli plea to raid Iran-AP

WASHINGTON – President George W. Bush rejected a plea from Israel last year to help it raid Iran’s main nuclear complex, opting instead to authorize a new U.S. covert action aimed at sabotaging Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons program, The New York Times reported.

Israel’s request was for specialized bunker-busting bombs that it wanted for an attack that tentatively involved flying over Iraq to reach Iran’s major nuclear complex at Natanz, where the country’s only known uranium enrichment plant is located, the Times reported Saturday in its online edition. The White House deflected requests for the bombs and flyover but said it would improve intelligence-sharing with Israel on covert U.S. efforts to sabotage Iran’s nuclear program.

The covert efforts, which began in early 2008, involved plans to penetrate Iran’s nuclear supply chain abroad and undermine electrical systems and other networks on which Iran relies, the Times said, citing interviews with current and former U.S. officials, outside experts and international nuclear inspectors who spoke on condition of anonymity’.(AP News)
2.
Israel cannot depend on the US to fight their wars. Israel having acquired the nuclear capability must know Iran have the right to acquire the same capability(if they care to) since Iran have the same compelling reason as they. When one builds a nuclear complex in a very covert fashion no one needs to ask for what purpose it is. We see Los Alamos repeated over and over again. Israel’s special friendship with the US is going to be tested much more in the future. I foresee a veil of isolationism falling over the US in the coming decade since their own domestic program and economy need every resource they can muster. So Israel have to learn to coexist with moderate Palestinian faction and do everything to prove that they do have a genuine peace initiative in their relations with their neighbors.
benny

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