How far chance plays a role in the history of nations? Let me recall the story I had posted some time ago.
Agastya, a householder from Tulu desam, who lived in the middle of two constantly fighting neighbors Ambu and Subbu, had enough of his life. He went to Kailas to meditate. He received in due course enlightenment and his mentor asked him to choose a gift. He chose a deity in gold as large as a man’s palm.
“Chance it is called.” The mentor commented.
“It is a good gift to make my going back to my folks worth remembering.” Before he reached his home he came along a river where one man was about to make a hole in the river. “Don’t,” Agastya ran up to him. “It is chance which brought me to save you.” To his great surprise he was Subbu, his neighbor.
Yogi Agastya gave him his image and said,” Remember Chance has saved you.” Not long after Subbu went on a journey and he carried his image for his protection. While passing through a forest he was waylaid by robbers and was killed for the gold he carried.
As soon as news reached his home Ambu the other neighbor went to the Yogi and fell at his feet and said “Chance which you brought was for my rescue. Was it not?”
Chance has to be explained in terms of total interaction of life-forms. Certainty is settled by actions. Certainy of any ony one set of events in turn is on its own and must take its chance with others. History as with individual plays with larger groups and on a wider scale but the principle is always the same.
In Cosmos certainty of any action creates its own chains of events which create chance for a new player. Thus the war on terror in 2003 deposed Saddam Hussein of Iraq. Consequences of US intervention seems to have strengthened the hegemony of Shi’ia faction in the Middle East. So the Sunni faction whips up an opposition to cut the role of Iran in the region. Syria’s ability to withstand the opposition is a proof of Iran’s growing clout in the region. In a 4-D world of certainty chance is in the flattened down 3-D version of reality.