Einstein in 1926 famously observed as quantum theory was making inroads into classic Physics, in a letter to Max Born thus,” God does not play dice with the universe”. Yet there is the gambler’s fallacy, that has deeply claimed a hold in human thought.
Many short-term changes in stock price are essentially random fluctuations, and Matthias Pelster at Paderborn University in Germany has shown that investors will base their decisions on the belief that the prices will soon “even out”. So, like Italy’s lottery players, they trade against a streak. “Investors should, on average, trade equally ‘in line’ with the streak and against it,” he says. “Yet that is not what we can see in the data.” Coming back to the Monte Carlo fallacy human mind has not got around it. Imagine you are tossing a (fair) coin and you get the following sequence: Heads, Heads, Tails, Tails, Tails, Tails, Tails, Tails, Tails, Tails, Tails, Tails. What’s the chance you will now get a heads?
Many people believe the odds change so that the sequence must somehow even out, increasing the chance of a heads on the subsequent goes. Somehow, it just feels inevitable that a heads will come next. But basic probability theory tells us that the events are statistically independent. It is simply this: the odds are exactly the same on each flip. The chance of a heads is still 50% even if you’ve had 500 or 5,000 tails all in a row. The same fallacy affects nations in cobbling a policy with which the super rich if they are given incentives it works out a trickle down economic blip and set of changes all around. It has never shown in practice to be true. For all that law makers never seem to break free from their fallacy.
Two spacecraft, built and launched in 1970s, have for the past few years been beaming back our first glimpses from an uncharted territory billions of miles from home. No other spacecraft have travelled as far. The turbulence of interstellar medium”.is the result of the solar wind – a constant, powerful stream of charged particles, or plasma, spraying out in every direction from the Sun – as it crashes into a cocktail of gas, dust, and cosmic rays that blows between star systems. This is also the birthplace of new stars.
But its exact nature just outside our solar system has been largely a mystery, principally because the Sun, all eight planets and a distant disc of debris known as the Kuiper Belt, are all contained within a giant protective bubble formed by the solar wind, known as the heliosphere. As the Sun and its surrounding planets hurtle through the galaxy, this bubble buffets against the interstellar medium like an invisible shield, keeping out the majority of harmful cosmic rays and other material. Everything that makes up our body, element are what supernovae of stars have bequeathed us. What makes the earth hospitable and makes birth and death interchangeable are not left to chance. God does not play dice while many spins at the toss of a coin are not what determines how it shall fall.
Benny
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